2016 Federal Election: Just because we can discern no "mood for change", doesn't mean there isn't one...

A week to go. Just because we can discern "no mood for change", doesn't mean there isn't one. It's not like we've been right before! However, the received wisdom from many sources is that the Labor govts in Victoria and Queensland are dragging on Shorten, and will thus deliver Turnbull back to government. Curious that this logic isn't being applied to Turnbull in NSW, where Baird is under popular siege on several fronts. Anyway, this just feeds into the expectation that MT is "inevitable" -- abt 55% expect him to win, despite voting intention broadly holding steady at 50:50. The weight of chatter based on speculation derived from the spectacle of media coverage can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Could we please remember how volatile the electorate is? I'm thinking as recently as the last Qld state election, a massive and unheralded turnaround. My view is Labor should just run hard and keep making the case. It will come down to how well the parties are organised on the ground for polling day. Whoever wins must deal with an unruly senate. The flipside of the Libs scare campaign on an ALP/Greens alliance, is that they are facing the prospect that Turbull will limp back into power, his leadership weakened. Labor should be gaming not just the return of Abbott to the front bench, but the prospect of a move to install Morrison within a year.

Labor has been doing well to set the policy agenda and laying out what they would do in Govt. There's been little in the way of reminding the electorate just how bad the Abbott/Turnbull government has been, likely because it so easily invites the retort of the Rudd/Gillard fiasco. But Turnbull should be made to defend Abbott's record, to defend the changes Abbott made that Turnbull is quietly keeping, and not be allowed to get away with being simply rewarded for getting rid of him. And not sure why more isn't being made of the Liberal's internal divisions. Labor's policy agenda has been put. Time to make the Coalition the focus. If Labor is going to lose, better to inflict as much damage on the other side as possible.